Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles
Starting in fiscal year 2020, we are redefining the relevant markets of the Volkswagen Group for trucks and buses based on our core countries. Our relevant truck markets are the 27 EU member states excluding Malta, but including the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3), as well as Brazil, Russia, Turkey and South Africa. The bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group are the EU27+3, Brazil and Mexico.
For 2020, we expect new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes to be distinctly lower than the 2019 level in markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group. We regard the declining incoming orders seen in 2019 and the anticipated drop in transport volumes as a sign of a downturn in the European truck market. For the EU27+3 countries, we expect a 10 to 20% downturn in the market in 2020. Russia will probably witness a distinct rebound in demand. In Turkey, we are forecasting a very sharp recovery of demand after a very low level in the prior year. For South Africa, we are forecasting a moderate decrease. We estimate that demand in Brazil will be much higher than in the previous year.
On average, we anticipate solid growth rates in the relevant truck markets for the years 2021 to 2024.
A slight year-on-year increase in overall demand for 2020 is likely in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group. We anticipate a moderate decline in the market in the EU27+3 countries, a moderate increase in Mexico and new registrations in Brazil will probably be much higher than the prior-year level.
Overall, we expect a noticeable decrease in the demand for buses on the relevant markets for the period from 2021 to 2024.