37.4. Market risk

4.1 Hedging policy and financial derivatives

During the course of its general business activities, the Volkswagen Group is exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, commodity price, equity price and fund price risk. Corporate policy is to limit such risk by means of hedging. Generally, all necessary hedging transactions, with the exception of the Scania, MAN and Porsche Holding GmbH (Salzburg) subgroups, are executed or coordinated centrally by Group Treasury.

DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM FAIR VALUE HEDGES

Fair value hedges involve hedging against the risk of changes in the carrying amount of balance sheet items. As of the reporting date, both hedging instruments and hedged items are measured at fair value in relation to the hedged risk, and the resulting changes in value are recognized on a net basis in the corresponding income statement item.

The following table shows the gains and losses from (fair value) hedges by risk type:

DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM CASH FLOW HEDGES

Cash flow hedges are used to hedge against risks of fluctuations in future cash flows. These cash flows may arise from a recognized asset or liability, or from a highly probable forecast transaction. The following table shows the gains and losses from (cash flow) hedges by risk type:

The table presents effects taken to equity, reduced by deferred taxes.

The gain or loss from changes in the fair value of hedging instruments used in hedge accounting corresponds to the basis for determining hedge ineffectiveness. The ineffective portion of a cash flow hedge is the income or expense resulting from changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument that exceed the changes in the fair value of the hedged item. This hedge ineffectiveness is attributable to parameter differences between the hedging instrument and the hedged item. Such income and expenses are recognized in other operating income/expenses or in the financial result.

The Volkswagen Group uses two different methods to present market risk from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments in accordance with IFRS 7. For quantitative risk measurement, interest rate and foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup are measured using a value-at-risk (VaR) model on the basis of a historical simulation, while market risk in the other Group companies is determined using a sensitivity analysis. The value-at-risk calculation indicates the size of the maximum potential loss on the portfolio as a whole within a time horizon of 40 days, measured at a confidence level of 99%. To provide the basis for this calculation, all cash flows from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments are aggregated into an interest rate gap analysis. The historical market data used in calculating value at risk covers a period of 1,000 trading days. The sensitivity analysis calculates the effect on equity and profit or loss by modifying risk variables within the respective market risks.

DISCLOSURES ON HEDGING INSTRUMENTS IN HEDGE ACCOUNTING

The Volkswagen Group regularly enters into hedging instruments to hedge against changes in the carrying amount of balance sheet items. The summary below shows the notional amounts, fair values and base variables for determining the ineffectiveness of hedging instruments entered into to hedge against the risk of changes in carrying amounts in fair value hedges:

In addition, hedging instruments are entered into to hedge against the risk of fluctuations in future cash flows. The table below shows the notional amounts, fair values and base variables for determining the ineffectiveness of hedging instruments designated as cash flow hedges:

The change in the fair value to determine ineffectiveness corresponds to the change in fair value of the designated component.

DISCLOSURES ON HEDGED ITEMS IN HEDGE ACCOUNTING

In addition to disclosures on hedging instruments, disclosures are also required on the hedged items, broken down by risk category and type of designation for hedge accounting. Below follows a list of hedged items designated in fair value hedges, separately from those designated in cash flow hedges:

CHANGES IN THE RESERVE

When accounting for cash flow hedges, the designated effective portions of a hedging relationship are recognized in OCI I. Any changes in excess of the fair value of the designated component are recognized as ineffectiveness through profit or loss.

The tables below show a reconciliation to the reserve:

If expectations about the occurrence of the hedged item change, the arrangement is reclassified by terminating the hedging relationship prematurely. Changed expectations are primarily caused by a change in projections for hedging sales revenue.

Changes in the fair values of non-designated components of a derivative are likewise always recognized immediately through profit or loss. An exception from this principle is any change in the fair value attributable to non-designated time values of options, to the extent that they relate to the hedged item. Moreover, the Volkswagen Group initially recognizes in equity (hedging costs) changes in the fair values of non-designated forward components in currency forwards and currency hedges attributed to cash flow hedges. This means that the Volkswagen Group recognizes changes in the fair value of the non-designated component or parts thereof immediately through profit or loss only if there is ineffectiveness.

The tables below show a summary of changes in the reserve for hedging costs resulting from the non-designated portions of options and currency hedges:

4.2 Market risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup)

4.2.1 Foreign currency risk

Foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) is attributable to investments, financing measures and operating activities. Currency forwards, currency options, currency swaps and cross-currency interest rate swaps are used to limit foreign currency risk. These transactions relate to the exchange rate hedging of all material payments covering general business activities that are not made in the functional currency of the respective Group companies. The principle of matching currencies applies to the Group’s financing activities.

Hedging transactions entered into in 2019 as part of foreign currency risk management were amongst others in Australian dollars, Brazilian real, sterling, Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollars, Indian rupees, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Mexican pesos, Norwegian kroner, Polish zloty, Russian rubles, Swedish kronor, Swiss francs, Singapore dollars, South African rand, South Korean won, Taiwan dollars, Czech koruna, Hungarian forints and US dollars.

All nonfunctional currencies in which the Volkswagen Group enters into financial instruments are included as relevant risk variables in the sensitivity analysis in accordance with IFRS 7.

If the functional currencies concerned had appreciated or depreciated by 10% against the other currencies, the exchange rates shown below would have resulted in the following effects on the hedging reserve in equity and on earnings after tax. It is not appropriate to add together the individual figures, since the results of the various functional currencies concerned are based on different scenarios.

The following table shows the sensitivities of the main currencies in the portfolio as of December 31, 2019:

4.2.2 Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) results from changes in market interest rates, primarily for medium- and long-term variable interest receivables and liabilities. Interest rate swaps and cross-currency interest rate swaps are sometimes entered into to hedge against this risk primarily under fair value or cash flow hedges, and depending on market conditions. Intragroup financing arrangements are mainly structured to match the maturities of their refinancing. Departures from the Group standard are subject to centrally defined limits and monitored on an ongoing basis.

Interest rate risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is calculated for these companies using sensitivity analyses. The effects of the risk-variable market rates of interest on the financial result and on equity are presented, net of tax.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2019, equity would have been €98 million (previous year: €131 million) lower. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2019, equity would have been €90 million (previous year: €66 million) higher.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2019, earnings after tax would have been €55 million (previous year: €24 million) higher. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2019, earnings after tax would have been €47 million (previous year: €26 million) lower.

4.2.3 Commodity price risk

Commodity price risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) primarily results from price fluctuations and the availability of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, precious metals, commodities required in connection with the Group’s digitalization and electrification strategy, as well as of coal, CO₂ certificates and rubber.

Commodity price risk is limited by entering into forward transactions and swaps.

Commodity price risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is presented using sensitivity analyses. These show the effect on earnings after tax of changes in the risk variable commodity prices.

If the commodity prices of the hedged nonferrous metals, coal and rubber had been 10% higher (lower) as of December 31, 2019, earnings after tax would have been €415 million (previous year: €197 million) higher (lower).

4.2.4 Equity and bond price risk

The special funds launched using surplus liquidity and the equity interests measured at fair value are subject in particular to equity price and bond price risk, which can arise from fluctuations in quoted market prices, stock exchange indices and market rates of interest. The changes in bond prices resulting from variations in the market rates of interest are quantified in sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2, as are the measurement of foreign currency and other interest rate risks arising from the special funds and the equity interests measured at fair value. As a rule, risks arising from the special funds are countered by ensuring a broad diversification of products, issuers and regional markets when investing funds, as stipulated by the Investment Guidelines of the Group. In addition, exchange rates are hedged when market conditions are appropriate.

As part of the presentation of market risk, IFRS 7 requires disclosures on how hypothetical changes in risk variables affect the price of financial instruments. Potential risk variables here are in particular quoted market prices or indices, as well as interest rate changes as bond price parameters.

If share prices had been 10% higher as of December 31, 2019, earnings after tax would have been €118 million (previous year: €16 million) higher and equity would have been €3 million (previous year: €4 million) higher. If share prices had been 10% lower as of December 31, 2019, earnings after tax would have been €175 million (previous year: €25 million) lower and equity would have been €3 million (previous year: €4 million) lower.

4.3 Market risk at Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup

Exchange rate risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup is mainly attributable to assets that are not denominated in the functional currency and from refinancing within operating activities. Interest rate risk relates to refinancing without matching maturities and the varying interest rate elasticity of individual asset and liability items. The risks are limited by the use of currency and interest rate hedges.

Microhedges and portfolio hedges are used for interest rate hedging. Fixed-rate assets and liabilities included in the hedging strategy are recognized at fair value, as opposed to their original subsequent measurement at amortized cost. The resulting effects in the income statement are offset by the corresponding gains and losses on the interest rate hedging instruments (swaps). Currency hedges (currency forwards and cross-currency interest rate swaps) are used to mitigate foreign currency risk. All cash flows in foreign currency are hedged.

As of December 31, 2019, the value at risk was €147 million (previous year: €122 million) for interest rate risk and €172 million (previous year: €187 million) for foreign currency risk.

The entire value at risk for interest rate and foreign currency risk at the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup was €170 million (previous year: €214 million).