Development of the global economy
Our forecasts are based on the assumption that global economic growth in 2020 will be at the same level as in the preceding year. We still believe that risks will arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will be negatively impacted by continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts as well as epidemics spanning countries and regions, such as the current spread of the coronavirus. We anticipate that momentum in both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will be similar to that seen in 2019. We expect to see the strongest rates of expansion in Asia’s emerging economies.
Furthermore, we anticipate that the global economy will also continue to grow in the period from 2021 to 2024.
In Western Europe, economic growth in 2020 is likely to decline slightly compared to the reporting year. Resolving structural problems continues to pose a major challenge, as does the uncertain impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU.
In Central Europe, we estimate that growth rates in 2020 will remain approximately level with those for the past fiscal year. The economic situation in Eastern Europe should stabilize, providing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not worsen. The Russian economy is expected to see only muted growth.
For Turkey, we anticipate a rising growth rate amid higher inflation. The South African economy will probably be dominated by political uncertainty and social tensions again in 2020 resulting, in particular, from high unemployment. Growth should therefore increase only slightly.
We expect that gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany will increase only at a low rate in 2020. The situation in the labor market will probably remain stable and bolster consumer spending.
We assume that the economic situation in the USA will continue to be stable in 2020. GDP growth should be lower than in the reporting period, however. The US Federal Reserve could further reduce the key interest rate during 2020. Economic growth is likely to remain more or less stable in Canada. In Mexico, we expect it to increase slightly following stagnation in the previous year.
The Brazilian economy will most likely stabilize in 2020 and record somewhat more dynamic growth than in the reporting period. Amid sustained high inflation, the economic situation in Argentina is expected to stay very tense.
In 2020, the Chinese economy is expected to continue growing at a relatively high level, but will lose some of its momentum compared with prior years. The agreement on trade matters with the United States and fiscal policy by the government are likely to have a stabilizing impact, whereas a further spread of the coronavirus may have a dampening effect on the economic development. For India, we anticipate an expansion rate on a similar scale to the previous years. In Japan, growth is forecast to remain weak.