Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We expect trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions to be mixed in 2020. Overall, the volume of global demand for new vehicles will probably match the 2019 level. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2021 to 2024.
Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will also be mixed in 2020; on the whole, we anticipate a slight dip in demand in 2020. We expect a return to the growth trajectory for the years 2021 to 2024.
The Volkswagen Group is well prepared for the future challenges pertaining to the automotive mobility business and the mixed developments in regional automotive markets. Our brand diversity, our presence in all major world markets, our broad and selectively expanded product range, and our technologies and services put us in a good competitive position worldwide. With electric drives, digital connectivity and autonomous driving, we want to make the automobile cleaner, quieter, more intelligent and safer. We have set ourselves the goal of continuing to excite our customers in future and meeting their diverse needs with an appealing product portfolio of impressive vehicles and forward-looking, tailor-made mobility solutions.
For 2020, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be distinctly below that recorded in the reporting period. The uncertain impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU is likely to further exacerbate the ongoing uncertainty among consumers, continuing to dampen demand. We expect a moderate decline on the British and Italian markets in 2020. In France and Spain, the markets are likely to fall perceptibly short of the level seen in the reporting year.
For light commercial vehicles, we expect demand in Western Europe in 2020 to be distinctly lower than the prior-year level, owing to the uncertain impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU and the pull-forward effect on sales of the WLTP in 2019. In France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain we are forecasting a marked drop in some cases.
Sales of passenger cars in 2020 are expected to slightly fall short of the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe. In Russia, we anticipate a market volume that is slightly higher than in the previous year. The number of new registrations should recede in most of the other markets in this region.
Registrations of light commercial vehicles in the Central and Eastern European markets in 2020 will probably be noticeably lower than in the previous year. We expect a distinct decline in market volume for Russia.
The Turkish passenger car market is projected to record a sharp increase in 2020 in contrast to the weak preceding year. The volume of new registrations in South Africa in 2020 is likely to match the figure for the previous year.
After a positive performance overall in recent years, we assume that demand in the German passenger car market will fall noticeably year-on-year in 2020.
We anticipate that registrations of light commercial vehicles will be up slightly on the previous year’s level.
The volume of demand in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America as a whole and in the USA in 2020 is likely to fall slightly short of the previous year. Demand will probably remain highest for models in the SUV and pickup segments. In Canada, the number of new registrations is also projected to be slightly lower than the previous year’s level. For Mexico, we expect a moderate fall in demand compared with the reporting year.
Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We expect to see an overall moderate increase in new registrations in the South American markets in 2020 compared with the previous year. In Brazil, demand volume is expected to rise perceptibly again in 2020 following the increase in the reporting period. However, we anticipate that demand in Argentina will be slightly lower year-on-year.
In 2020, the passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be at the prior-year level. We expect, subject to a further spread of the coronavirus, demand in China to be slightly up on the previous year’s level. Attractively priced entry-level models in the SUV segment in particular should still see strong demand. For as long as there is no resolution in sight, the trade dispute between China and the United States will continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence. We anticipate a slight decrease in the Indian market compared with the previous year. By contrast, Japan’s market volume is forecast to record a distinct decrease in 2020.
The market volume for light commercial vehicles in 2020 will probably fall moderately short of the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be distinctly below that of the prior year. For India, we are forecasting a moderately higher volume in 2020 than in the reporting period. In the Japanese market, demand is likely to be markedly lower than the previous year’s level.